Bitcoin price has dropped by over 7% from its highest level this week and could fall below $60,000 this month, according to Polymarket.
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to a low of $63,504 on Thursday despite the Federal Reserve hinting at a potential rate cut in September. This bullish signal isn’t shared by the Polymarket community.
In a Polymarket poll with $57,000 in funding, most participants believe the coin will drop below $60,000 before September. About 24% expect it to fall below $55,000, while 15% see it moving below $50,000.
The reason for Thursday’s Bitcoin sell-off remains unclear. One possibility is the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could spike inflation and force the Fed to delay rate cuts. Oil prices have surged, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate hitting $82 and $79, respectively.
Another key factor will be Friday’s non-farm payroll data. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated the Fed would monitor these job numbers to decide on a potential rate cut in September.
Another potential reason for Bitcoin’s weakness could be the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election. According to Polymarket, while Donald Trump still leads with 55%, Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed the gap significantly.
A poll by PredictIt shows Harris leading with 53%, followed by Trump at 49%. Recent polls indicate Harris has erased Trump’s lead in key battleground states.
Trump is considered the more crypto-friendly presidential candidate. At a crypto conference, he promised to support the industry and ensure the government does not sell its Bitcoin holdings. Current data shows the government holds 213,246 coins, mainly from Silk Road seizures.
Bitcoin price may have bottomed
For Polymarket’s Bitcoin forecast to come true, sellers need to push the price below $63,460, its lowest level on Thursday. This level is significant as BTC failed to drop below it on July 18, 19, and 25.
It is also the neckline of the triple-top pattern formed in July and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Breaking this support would signal that bears have prevailed, increasing the likelihood of BTC dropping to $60,000.
